The future of Siberia is to become a trading partner to the Chinese markets, and while the Cadre can pretend it is just a customer, the truth is that it must buy Siberia. With that cash, Siberia does not need the Kremlin. Target date 2025, the trade war on the Kolyma.
Russia’s aim in wooing Mr Hu
Published: May 23 2008 19:06 | Last updated: May 23 2008 19:06
On his first foreign excursion since becoming Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev has turned east, to Kazakhstan and China, not west. It is no idle gesture. The choice of destination is clearly intended to underline a new emphasis in Moscow’s international ties. China is becoming a preferred partner, just as relations with the rest of Europe, and America, have cooled.
Yet even loyal Russian analysts are keen to stress that this does not mean a fundamental shift in priorities. Rather, following in the footsteps of Vladimir Putin, his predecessor and mentor, Mr Medvedev is signalling that Russia will be hard-nosed and pragmatic in pursuing multiple partnerships. Like Mr Putin, the new president has gone to Beijing, a large retinue of Russian businessmen in tow.
Both political and trade ties between Russia and China are much improved in recent years. Commerce is flourishing. Two-way trade rose 44 per cent to more than $48bn in 2007, a five-fold increase in the eight years since Mr Putin came to power. They have joined forces in the Shanghai Co-operation Organis- ation, bringing the countries of Central Asia into a security agreement seeking to counterbalance US influence in the region. Beijing and Moscow see themselves as part of a multipolar world: hence their joint condemnation on Friday of US plans for a missile defence shield.
It is a far cry from the bitter relations that prevailed during most of the cold war when, far from being close communist allies, the two regimes were at loggerheads. Today the two sides would like to present their new-found friendship as a fully-fledged strategic partnership. Yet it is more an alliance of convenience that disguises many tensions.
China is now lead partner in the relationship. In spite of the soaring price of oil and gas, Russia’s sales to China grew little more than 12 per cent last year, to $19.67bn, while China’s exports rocketed by almost 80 per cent to $28.48bn, giving China a trade surplus for the first time. Mr Medvedev wants to boost sales of Russian military equipment, aircraft and nuclear technology to redress the balance.
China clearly wants access to the massive mineral resources of Siberia to fuel its economic growth. But Russia has always mistrusted Chinese motives, and is cautious of too much investment, or migration, into its vast and under-populated eastern regions. Promises to build a new oil pipeline have yet to bear fruit, after a decade of negotiations.
Mr Medvedev’s next foreign trip will be to Berlin. Germany is still Moscow’s number one partner for trade and investment. Other western partners – including the US – will have to wait their turn. It is the Kremlin’s way of saying that it does not like to be taken for granted. Yet in the long run, Russia fears China far more than it fears its western neighbours. It has only ever been conquered from the east.
Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2008
No comments:
Post a Comment